Gradually, then suddenly.
Ernest Hemingway talked about people going bankrupt, which while giving this quote a somewhat grim tone, is often used as an apt description for all sorts of changes, from political and social movements to personal success.
It's really an encapsulation of the tipping point concept; that there can be many years of seemingly unrewarded hardship when change seems impossible, only to suddenly reach an inflection point where everything accelerates and change now seems inevitable.
Such turning points usually look very clear in hindsight, but are notoriously difficult to pick out in the moments when they occur. So it's with great caution that I say this week could mark a tipping point for unionization in the games business — a process that has been slow and drawn out to date, but has now seen two major unions (around 250 workers at Bethesda and more than 500 at Blizzard) formed during the week.
We may look back in years to come and see this as the moment when things finally changed – but caution is still in order, and the mere existence of these unions, while important, will have far less long-term consequences than what they do next.
A little history will probably help here. The reason unionization efforts at these studios are succeeding after years of industry-wide advocacy is largely a result of the deal Microsoft struck with the Communication Workers of America union when it negotiated its 2022 acquisition of Activision Blizzard.
The agreement committed Microsoft to take a neutral stance on unionization efforts—which were generally strongly opposed by large employers in the gaming industry—and initially covered only former Activision Blizzard employees at the company, but was extended to cover Zenimax employees for several months. before.
While there have been some small wins for unionization efforts before as part of this labor neutrality deal, the major new unions formed this week at Bethesda and Blizzard are by far the most significant result yet.
This is no doubt a particularly satisfying moment for Blizzard workers who have unionized — it's worth taking a moment to remember that the current movement toward unionization at the studio was initially a response to revelations about poor working conditions and various forms of harassment that rocked the studio. Activision Blizzard before its acquisition.
The successful unionization of more than 500 World of Warcraft employees is a major symbolic milestone in the ouster of the old regime at Activision Blizzard, which has previously aggressively opposed any attempts to organize labor, even as new information about their shocking mismanagement came to public attention last week .
The successful unionization of more than 500 World of Warcraft employees is a major symbolic milestone in the overthrow of the old regime at Activision Blizzard.
So is this a tipping point? There is certainly an argument to be made in this sense.
While the neutrality agreement with the CWA is specific to Microsoft-owned studios, the high visibility of such major union successes could start to push dominoes elsewhere. I don't know if anyone had “turning point for game developer unions” on their bingo card for Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard, but if these unions are successful, it will certainly be much harder for other companies to resist unionization efforts by their workers.
However, the fundamental question at the heart of this statement is what we mean by 'success'. The act of unionization is a significant milestone – and one that has often eluded workers in the games industry, meaning this week will be cause for celebration for many – but it's not the same as a union being successful.
There are many unions that do little for their members – the real test for new unions at Microsoft will come in the next phase when they engage in collective bargaining with Microsoft on behalf of their members. The perceived success or failure of this process is what will really change how workers elsewhere view the value of unions in the industry.
What do unions want to achieve and what can they realistically hope to achieve with their collective agreements? At least there's some low-hanging fruit here – areas where the distance between employers and workers isn't so great, so it'll probably be pretty easy to find a compromise that both sides are happy with.
Some of the main items we can expect to see in the initial cost-benefit analyzes (which are binding contracts generally covering three years before renegotiation) include a plan for regular wage increases above inflation, improvements to severance packages, agreed-upon procedures for dealing with harassment, and other matters on workplace. and blocking benefits such as health care and vacation for all workers.
Larger employers in the gaming industry are pretty decent about these things, so there's plenty of room for agreement and compromise. This does not mean that their inclusion in the CBA will not be meaningful; it's notable that these new unions are “wall-to-wall”, meaning people like QA and admins are included in the negotiations and can see significant benefits just from being treated the same as other employees in this regard .
The high visibility of such major union successes could start to push dominoes elsewhere
However, there are a number of other issues that pose bigger stumbling blocks – precisely because they are top topics for many developers, but are much more likely to be pushed hard by employers in negotiations. I see three main areas where developers will want their unions to make big wins, but employers will be determined to hold the line – namely layoff protection, problem reduction and telecommuting.
Also lurking in the background of that list is an agreement on how generative artificial intelligence is to be used, but it may be delayed in the first round of CBA negotiations given how much more pressing the other three issues are for many employees.
The difficulty in negotiating all of these issues is that they represent areas where employers are likely to see compromise with unions as risking unacceptably limited business.
Redundancy protections – beyond the basic protections provided by better severance packages – limit an employer's ability to treat its workforce as flexible and replaceable.
Likewise, emergency working conditions agreements take some tools out of management's hands, or at least make them significantly more expensive and difficult to use—which is, of course, the point of such agreements, which should ensure that an emergency situation is a costly last resort, so that it is less likely that workers would be exposed to it and, if necessary, be compensated for the extra work with more than just free pizza.
Telecommuting, meanwhile, is largely ideological for many people at this point. The facts and data about productivity have been lost in the background of a wider conflict between skilled and valuable employees who have become accustomed to working remotely and some managers and executives who do not like not being able to supervise their workers in person.
I see three main areas where developers will want their unions to win big, but employers will be determined to hold the line – namely layoff protection, shortage reductions and telecommuting.
There is undoubtedly some ambiguity within Microsoft and other employers about how far they are willing to go on these issues, and there is likely to be major pushback for anything other than the most basic compromises in the initial CBA. The danger is that if they don't achieve significant results on these issues, which are incredibly important and closely watched for many developers, these nascent unions could unwittingly undermine unionism more broadly.
If a unionized workplace experiences a vicious round of layoffs, a punishing critical phase, and/or a unilateral return-to-incumbency dictate, workers elsewhere will reasonably question exactly what benefit the union has provided.
New unions must demonstrate success on issues that matter to developers – otherwise, hindsight may show us that this was not a tipping point, but just another acceleration in the long and difficult path this process has taken so far.
None of this is to say that newly unionized workers shouldn't celebrate getting to this point in the first place. My intention is not to rain on any parades – these are significant and important steps forward in a process that has been too slow and stalled for too long.
However, a connection is not successful just because it exists. All eyes will be on the next stage of this process and the results these unions can now deliver to their members, as this is what will truly determine the future of unionization in the industry.